Fundamental Law of Active Management: Skill and Breadth

Two research decks land in the same week. The first belongs to a manager who called four big macro turns over three years and got every one of them right.…

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Prediction Intervals: Reading Forecast Uncertainty

The band around the forecast is a claim you can test A forecasting model hands you two things at once. There's the number everyone reads, say a projected close of…

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Read more about the article DQ +592%: base breakout to an eight-month run, June 2020
DQ on the 2020-06-23 breakout entry, from my chart archive

DQ +592%: base breakout to an eight-month run, June 2020

DQ is back on traders' screens this week, so it's worth pulling up the chart that mattered most. In the summer of 2020 the stock closed at 13.77 on 23…

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Strategy Capacity: When Trade Size Changes the Result

A backtest can look flawless and still be untradeable. Rules with clean equity curves that assumed every signal filled at the closing print can fall apart the moment real size…

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Rank Correlation: Measuring Screen Ranking Stability

You run a factor screen at the end of August, and the ten names at the top look familiar. You run it again four weeks later. The same companies are…

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Heteroskedasticity: Why Model Errors Change Size in Markets

A backtest hands you a clean-looking number. The strategy's average edge is 0.4% a week, the confidence interval sits comfortably away from zero, and the significance test says a result…

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Maximum Drawdown: Reading a Peak-to-Trough Decline

Two accounts finish the year at the same value, built from the same set of returns. One you could have held without much stress. The other spent months trading below…

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Read more about the article NTLA +114%: a CRISPR base breakout, November 2020
NTLA on the 2020-11-04 breakout entry, from my chart archive

NTLA +114%: a CRISPR base breakout, November 2020

NTLA is back near the top of the trending lists this week, and every time a ticker like this reappears it is worth pulling the chart that made it interesting…

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Market Fragmentation: How One Stock Trades Across Venues

Pull up two market data feeds on the same stock at the same second and you'll often see them disagree. One shows 1,200 shares offered at 48.75. The other shows…

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Read more about the article DSGX +399%: a deep base breakout into the dot-com run, November 1999
DSGX on the 1999-11-26 breakout entry, from my chart archive

DSGX +399%: a deep base breakout into the dot-com run, November 1999

DSGX is back among the day's big gainers this week, helped by a higher analyst price target, so it's worth pulling up a much older chart. Back in late 1999,…

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