Plain-English guides to technical indicators, settings, chart behavior, and practical trading rules for trend following and breakout strategies.

Futures Curve: Contango, Backwardation and Roll Yield

A commodity chart can mislead you without a single bad print. Pull up a multi-year continuous chart for crude oil or natural gas, watch it grind higher, and it's tempting…

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Adjusted Price Series: Why Your Old Chart Prices Change

Two charts of the same stock, side by side, and they disagree. One shows a long climb toward 100.00 that halves to 50.00 in a single session. The other runs…

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Hidden Markov Model: What Market Regime Labels Mean

You open a backtest and one line stops you. The strategy, it reports, only performs in the low-volatility regime. Somewhere a stretch of the chart has been tagged calm and…

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Index Weighting Methods: Price, Market Cap, and Equal

The index closed up eight tenths of a percent, and my watchlist was a wall of red. Most of the names I follow finished lower on the day, yet the…

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Portfolio Turnover Explained: Reading the Number Right

Two fund fact sheets sit open on my screen. One reports portfolio turnover of 28 percent for the year. The other reports 165 percent. The instinct is to read the…

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Look-Ahead Bias in Backtesting: The Timestamp Test

An equity curve slopes up and to the right, smooth, barely a drawdown across ten years. It reads like a finished strategy. Then you check one detail: the ranking that…

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Structural Break: When Old Market Data Stops Working

Pull ten years of daily data into a backtest, fit a trend filter that looks clean across the whole sample, then run it forward and watch it come apart. I've…

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Index Reconstitution: How Benchmark Rebalancing Works

On the last Friday of June, a full year of index reconstitution lands in a single closing auction. I keep that date circled because the tape turns strange into the…

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Tail Dependence: Why Diversified Assets Crash Together

A few years back I held six positions spread across different sectors, the kind of book that looks diversified on paper. On the three worst sessions of that stretch, all…

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Trading Halts and Limit Bands: How Pauses Reshape Price

Picture a stock you follow going quiet in the middle of the session. The tape stops printing, the bid and ask freeze, and for five minutes nothing trades at all.…

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