Plain-English guides to technical indicators, settings, chart behavior, and practical trading rules for trend following and breakout strategies.

Effective Number of Holdings: A Concentration Check

A trader opens a brokerage statement and counts twenty tickers. Twenty names feels diversified. Then two of those positions have run so far that together they carry roughly half the…

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Order Flow Persistence: Reading Runs of Signed Flow

Watch a fast tape long enough and you'll see it: a stream of prints that keep lifting the offer, one after another, twenty or thirty in a row, and not…

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Information Coefficient: How to Judge a Ranking Model

Someone hands you a backtest. The headline reads: an information coefficient of 0.06, a smooth equity curve, and a claim that the model ranks stocks better than the market does.…

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Futures Curve: Contango, Backwardation and Roll Yield

A commodity chart can mislead you without a single bad print. Pull up a multi-year continuous chart for crude oil or natural gas, watch it grind higher, and it's tempting…

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Adjusted Price Series: Why Your Old Chart Prices Change

Two charts of the same stock, side by side, and they disagree. One shows a long climb toward 100.00 that halves to 50.00 in a single session. The other runs…

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Hidden Markov Model: What Market Regime Labels Mean

You open a backtest and one line stops you. The strategy, it reports, only performs in the low-volatility regime. Somewhere a stretch of the chart has been tagged calm and…

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Index Weighting Methods: Price, Market Cap, and Equal

The index closed up eight tenths of a percent, and my watchlist was a wall of red. Most of the names I follow finished lower on the day, yet the…

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Portfolio Turnover Explained: Reading the Number Right

Two fund fact sheets sit open on my screen. One reports portfolio turnover of 28 percent for the year. The other reports 165 percent. The instinct is to read the…

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Look-Ahead Bias in Backtesting: The Timestamp Test

An equity curve slopes up and to the right, smooth, barely a drawdown across ten years. It reads like a finished strategy. Then you check one detail: the ranking that…

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Structural Break: When Old Market Data Stops Working

Pull ten years of daily data into a backtest, fit a trend filter that looks clean across the whole sample, then run it forward and watch it come apart. I've…

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