Multiple Testing in Trading Research: When a Signal Lies
Picture a moving-average crossover you're testing. You try fast lengths from 5 to 50, slow lengths from 20 to 200, three different exit rules, and four separate stock universes. Somewhere…
Plain-English guides to technical indicators, settings, chart behavior, and practical trading rules for trend following and breakout strategies.
Picture a moving-average crossover you're testing. You try fast lengths from 5 to 50, slow lengths from 20 to 200, three different exit rules, and four separate stock universes. Somewhere…
Two traders pull up the same stock on the same day and come away describing two different markets. One calls it a quiet session, up a fraction, nothing worth a…
Picture a bid at 50.00 showing 40,000 shares. You add a limit buy at that same price, then watch the prints roll by. Trades go off, the tape ticks, and…
A trader opens a brokerage statement and counts twenty tickers. Twenty names feels diversified. Then two of those positions have run so far that together they carry roughly half the…
Watch a fast tape long enough and you'll see it: a stream of prints that keep lifting the offer, one after another, twenty or thirty in a row, and not…
Someone hands you a backtest. The headline reads: an information coefficient of 0.06, a smooth equity curve, and a claim that the model ranks stocks better than the market does.…
A commodity chart can mislead you without a single bad print. Pull up a multi-year continuous chart for crude oil or natural gas, watch it grind higher, and it's tempting…
Two charts of the same stock, side by side, and they disagree. One shows a long climb toward 100.00 that halves to 50.00 in a single session. The other runs…
You open a backtest and one line stops you. The strategy, it reports, only performs in the low-volatility regime. Somewhere a stretch of the chart has been tagged calm and…
The index closed up eight tenths of a percent, and my watchlist was a wall of red. Most of the names I follow finished lower on the day, yet the…