Index Weighting Methods: Price, Market Cap, and Equal

The index closed up eight tenths of a percent, and my watchlist was a wall of red. Most of the names I follow finished lower on the day, yet the…

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Portfolio Turnover Explained: Reading the Number Right

Two fund fact sheets sit open on my screen. One reports portfolio turnover of 28 percent for the year. The other reports 165 percent. The instinct is to read the…

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Look-Ahead Bias in Backtesting: The Timestamp Test

An equity curve slopes up and to the right, smooth, barely a drawdown across ten years. It reads like a finished strategy. Then you check one detail: the ranking that…

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Structural Break: When Old Market Data Stops Working

Pull ten years of daily data into a backtest, fit a trend filter that looks clean across the whole sample, then run it forward and watch it come apart. I've…

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Read more about the article UPWK +222%: a base breakout in the remote-work boom, June 2020
UPWK on the 2020-06-22 breakout entry, from my chart archive

UPWK +222%: a base breakout in the remote-work boom, June 2020

In June 2020, UPWK cleared a well-defined pivot and kept climbing. Upwork broke out of a six-month base at a close of 13.55, then trended to a 43.58 close on…

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Index Reconstitution: How Benchmark Rebalancing Works

On the last Friday of June, a full year of index reconstitution lands in a single closing auction. I keep that date circled because the tape turns strange into the…

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Tail Dependence: Why Diversified Assets Crash Together

A few years back I held six positions spread across different sectors, the kind of book that looks diversified on paper. On the three worst sessions of that stretch, all…

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Read more about the article RUN +197%: a solar leader’s base breakout, July 2020
RUN on the 2020-07-06 breakout entry, from my chart archive

RUN +197%: a solar leader’s base breakout, July 2020

On 6 July 2020, Sunrun closed at 21.34, just above a shelf it'd been coiling under for two weeks. The stock had spent the spring clawing back from a brutal…

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Trading Halts and Limit Bands: How Pauses Reshape Price

Picture a stock you follow going quiet in the middle of the session. The tape stops printing, the bid and ask freeze, and for five minutes nothing trades at all.…

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Read more about the article MGNI +288%: the ad-tech base breakout, November 2020
MGNI on the 2020-11-04 breakout entry, from my chart archive

MGNI +288%: the ad-tech base breakout, November 2020

MGNI is back on traders' screens this week, near the top of the day's gainers list after Magnite's early-August quarterly report. That's a good reason to pull the chart that…

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