Time Aggregation: Why the Chart Clock Changes What You See

Two traders pull up the same stock on the same day and come away describing two different markets. One calls it a quiet session, up a fraction, nothing worth a…

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Queue Priority: How Order Position Shapes Execution

Picture a bid at 50.00 showing 40,000 shares. You add a limit buy at that same price, then watch the prints roll by. Trades go off, the tape ticks, and…

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Read more about the article FUTU +1170%: a base breakout off the 2020 washout, May 2020
FUTU on the 2020-05-07 breakout entry, from my chart archive

FUTU +1170%: a base breakout off the 2020 washout, May 2020

FUTU is back near the top of the day's gainers, and that pulls a familiar chart out of the archive. Long before Futu Holdings was posting record quarters, the FUTU…

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Effective Number of Holdings: A Concentration Check

A trader opens a brokerage statement and counts twenty tickers. Twenty names feels diversified. Then two of those positions have run so far that together they carry roughly half the…

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Order Flow Persistence: Reading Runs of Signed Flow

Watch a fast tape long enough and you'll see it: a stream of prints that keep lifting the offer, one after another, twenty or thirty in a row, and not…

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Read more about the article AMR +1526%: the coal-cycle base breakout, December 2020
AMR on the 2020-12-07 breakout entry, from my chart archive

AMR +1526%: the coal-cycle base breakout, December 2020

AMR is back among the day's biggest gainers, which makes this a good moment to pull the chart that turned a forgotten coal miner into a textbook base breakout. In…

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Information Coefficient: How to Judge a Ranking Model

Someone hands you a backtest. The headline reads: an information coefficient of 0.06, a smooth equity curve, and a claim that the model ranks stocks better than the market does.…

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Futures Curve: Contango, Backwardation and Roll Yield

A commodity chart can mislead you without a single bad print. Pull up a multi-year continuous chart for crude oil or natural gas, watch it grind higher, and it's tempting…

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Adjusted Price Series: Why Your Old Chart Prices Change

Two charts of the same stock, side by side, and they disagree. One shows a long climb toward 100.00 that halves to 50.00 in a single session. The other runs…

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Hidden Markov Model: What Market Regime Labels Mean

You open a backtest and one line stops you. The strategy, it reports, only performs in the low-volatility regime. Somewhere a stretch of the chart has been tagged calm and…

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