Index Reconstitution: How Benchmark Rebalancing Works

On the last Friday of June, a full year of index reconstitution lands in a single closing auction. I keep that date circled because the tape turns strange into the…

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Tail Dependence: Why Diversified Assets Crash Together

A few years back I held six positions spread across different sectors, the kind of book that looks diversified on paper. On the three worst sessions of that stretch, all…

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Read more about the article RUN +197%: a solar leader’s base breakout, July 2020
RUN on the 2020-07-06 breakout entry, from my chart archive

RUN +197%: a solar leader’s base breakout, July 2020

On 6 July 2020, Sunrun closed at 21.34, just above a shelf it'd been coiling under for two weeks. The stock had spent the spring clawing back from a brutal…

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Trading Halts and Limit Bands: How Pauses Reshape Price

Picture a stock you follow going quiet in the middle of the session. The tape stops printing, the bid and ask freeze, and for five minutes nothing trades at all.…

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Read more about the article MGNI +288%: the ad-tech base breakout, November 2020
MGNI on the 2020-11-04 breakout entry, from my chart archive

MGNI +288%: the ad-tech base breakout, November 2020

MGNI is back on traders' screens this week, near the top of the day's gainers list after Magnite's early-August quarterly report. That's a good reason to pull the chart that…

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Short Interest: What the Number Actually Tells You

A stock runs for three sessions and the message board fills with one number. Short interest is 22 percent, someone posts, so the squeeze is coming. I've watched that exact…

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Read more about the article TWST +359%: the base breakout that led 2020’s biotech run, May 2020
TWST on the 2020-05-05 breakout entry, from my chart archive

TWST +359%: the base breakout that led 2020’s biotech run, May 2020

Twist Bioscience is back among the day's biggest gainers, which is what pulled this old chart out of the archive. Back in the spring of 2020, TWST spent months grinding…

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Read more about the article NVAX +1458%: the base breakout before the vaccine run, April 2020
NVAX on the 2020-04-03 breakout entry, from my chart archive

NVAX +1458%: the base breakout before the vaccine run, April 2020

In the first week of April 2020, NVAX printed the kind of quiet breakout most traders scroll past. The stock cleared a 14.93 pivot and closed the session at 15.61,…

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Market Efficiency: A Framework for Judging Your Edge

A screen you built over the weekend just lit up. Across ten years of history it turned a modest stake into something that looks a lot like skill: the equity…

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Read more about the article CAR +420%: the base breakout that kept running, February 2021
CAR on the 2021-02-19 breakout entry, from my chart archive

CAR +420%: the base breakout that kept running, February 2021

When CAR turns up on traders' screens again, like this week's return to the StockTwits trending list, the chart worth studying is the CAR base breakout from February 2021. Avis…

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