Read more about the article AMR +1526%: the coal-cycle base breakout, December 2020
AMR on the 2020-12-07 breakout entry, from my chart archive

AMR +1526%: the coal-cycle base breakout, December 2020

AMR is back among the day's biggest gainers, which makes this a good moment to pull the chart that turned a forgotten coal miner into a textbook base breakout. In…

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Information Coefficient: How to Judge a Ranking Model

Someone hands you a backtest. The headline reads: an information coefficient of 0.06, a smooth equity curve, and a claim that the model ranks stocks better than the market does.…

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Futures Curve: Contango, Backwardation and Roll Yield

A commodity chart can mislead you without a single bad print. Pull up a multi-year continuous chart for crude oil or natural gas, watch it grind higher, and it's tempting…

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Adjusted Price Series: Why Your Old Chart Prices Change

Two charts of the same stock, side by side, and they disagree. One shows a long climb toward 100.00 that halves to 50.00 in a single session. The other runs…

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Hidden Markov Model: What Market Regime Labels Mean

You open a backtest and one line stops you. The strategy, it reports, only performs in the low-volatility regime. Somewhere a stretch of the chart has been tagged calm and…

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Index Weighting Methods: Price, Market Cap, and Equal

The index closed up eight tenths of a percent, and my watchlist was a wall of red. Most of the names I follow finished lower on the day, yet the…

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Portfolio Turnover Explained: Reading the Number Right

Two fund fact sheets sit open on my screen. One reports portfolio turnover of 28 percent for the year. The other reports 165 percent. The instinct is to read the…

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Look-Ahead Bias in Backtesting: The Timestamp Test

An equity curve slopes up and to the right, smooth, barely a drawdown across ten years. It reads like a finished strategy. Then you check one detail: the ranking that…

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Structural Break: When Old Market Data Stops Working

Pull ten years of daily data into a backtest, fit a trend filter that looks clean across the whole sample, then run it forward and watch it come apart. I've…

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Read more about the article UPWK +222%: a base breakout in the remote-work boom, June 2020
UPWK on the 2020-06-22 breakout entry, from my chart archive

UPWK +222%: a base breakout in the remote-work boom, June 2020

In June 2020, UPWK cleared a well-defined pivot and kept climbing. Upwork broke out of a six-month base at a close of 13.55, then trended to a 43.58 close on…

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