Event Study: How to Read Abnormal Returns From News

A headline crosses the wire: a stock "jumped 4% after earnings." It reads like a clean reaction, cause and effect in one line. Then you pull up the tape and…

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Log Returns vs Simple Returns: What Traders Must Know

A stock closes up 10 percent on Monday and down 10 percent on Tuesday. Add the two moves and you get zero, so the week looks like a wash. The…

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Read more about the article ZM +370%: the leader’s base breakout, February 2020
ZM on the 2020-02-18 breakout entry, from my chart archive

ZM +370%: the leader’s base breakout, February 2020

By mid-February 2020, Zoom Video Communications had spent almost a year grinding sideways after its IPO pop, and then it stopped grinding. On 18 February 2020 the stock closed at…

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Multiple Testing in Trading Research: When a Signal Lies

Picture a moving-average crossover you're testing. You try fast lengths from 5 to 50, slow lengths from 20 to 200, three different exit rules, and four separate stock universes. Somewhere…

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Read more about the article EH +265%: anatomy of a base breakout, November 2020
EH on the 2020-11-23 breakout entry, from my chart archive

EH +265%: anatomy of a base breakout, November 2020

EHang, ticker EH, is back on traders' screens this week. The Chinese eVTOL maker posted its second-quarter 2026 results on 25 August, per the company's own release, and the stock…

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Time Aggregation: Why the Chart Clock Changes What You See

Two traders pull up the same stock on the same day and come away describing two different markets. One calls it a quiet session, up a fraction, nothing worth a…

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Queue Priority: How Order Position Shapes Execution

Picture a bid at 50.00 showing 40,000 shares. You add a limit buy at that same price, then watch the prints roll by. Trades go off, the tape ticks, and…

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Read more about the article FUTU +1170%: a base breakout off the 2020 washout, May 2020
FUTU on the 2020-05-07 breakout entry, from my chart archive

FUTU +1170%: a base breakout off the 2020 washout, May 2020

FUTU is back near the top of the day's gainers, and that pulls a familiar chart out of the archive. Long before Futu Holdings was posting record quarters, the FUTU…

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Effective Number of Holdings: A Concentration Check

A trader opens a brokerage statement and counts twenty tickers. Twenty names feels diversified. Then two of those positions have run so far that together they carry roughly half the…

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Order Flow Persistence: Reading Runs of Signed Flow

Watch a fast tape long enough and you'll see it: a stream of prints that keep lifting the offer, one after another, twenty or thirty in a row, and not…

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