Multiple Testing in Trading Research: When a Signal Lies
Picture a moving-average crossover you're testing. You try fast lengths from 5 to 50, slow lengths from 20 to 200, three different exit rules, and four separate stock universes. Somewhere…
Picture a moving-average crossover you're testing. You try fast lengths from 5 to 50, slow lengths from 20 to 200, three different exit rules, and four separate stock universes. Somewhere…
You open a backtest and one line stops you. The strategy, it reports, only performs in the low-volatility regime. Somewhere a stretch of the chart has been tagged calm and…
An equity curve slopes up and to the right, smooth, barely a drawdown across ten years. It reads like a finished strategy. Then you check one detail: the ranking that…
Pull ten years of daily data into a backtest, fit a trend filter that looks clean across the whole sample, then run it forward and watch it come apart. I've…
You have two versions of the same trend system in front of you. One is a single line of code: take each market's own return series, smooth it with a…
You hand a swing system fourteen years of daily bars, sweep eight parameter knobs, and the equity curve climbs at a 38 degree slope with a 1.92 Sharpe and a…