Multiple Testing in Trading Research: When a Signal Lies

Picture a moving-average crossover you're testing. You try fast lengths from 5 to 50, slow lengths from 20 to 200, three different exit rules, and four separate stock universes. Somewhere…

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Hidden Markov Model: What Market Regime Labels Mean

You open a backtest and one line stops you. The strategy, it reports, only performs in the low-volatility regime. Somewhere a stretch of the chart has been tagged calm and…

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Look-Ahead Bias in Backtesting: The Timestamp Test

An equity curve slopes up and to the right, smooth, barely a drawdown across ten years. It reads like a finished strategy. Then you check one detail: the ranking that…

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Structural Break: When Old Market Data Stops Working

Pull ten years of daily data into a backtest, fit a trend filter that looks clean across the whole sample, then run it forward and watch it come apart. I've…

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End-to-End Portfolio Policies vs a Simple Momentum Rule

You have two versions of the same trend system in front of you. One is a single line of code: take each market's own return series, smooth it with a…

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Three-Phase Backtesting Protocol That Stops Curve Fitting

You hand a swing system fourteen years of daily bars, sweep eight parameter knobs, and the equity curve climbs at a 38 degree slope with a 1.92 Sharpe and a…

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