Leading Stocks: Reading a Leader Group Against the Index

Picture an index chart that looks healthy. It closed the week at a new high, its 50-day moving average is rising, and the heaviest volume sessions of the month were…

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Institutional Sponsorship: How to Read the I in CAN SLIM

Picture two growth companies that pass the same earnings screen in the same week. Both reported quarterly earnings per share up more than 40% for two straight quarters, both sit…

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Flat Base Pattern: How a Shallow Consolidation Forms

A growth stock has climbed from 42.00 to 68.50 in fourteen weeks, and then it stalls. For the next seven weeks the weekly bars drift sideways. Price never trades above…

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Fundamental Law of Active Management: Skill and Breadth

Two research decks land in the same week. The first belongs to a manager who called four big macro turns over three years and got every one of them right.…

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Prediction Intervals: Reading Forecast Uncertainty

The band around the forecast is a claim you can test A forecasting model hands you two things at once. There's the number everyone reads, say a projected close of…

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Read more about the article DQ +592%: base breakout to an eight-month run, June 2020
DQ on the 2020-06-23 breakout entry, from my chart archive

DQ +592%: base breakout to an eight-month run, June 2020

DQ is back on traders' screens this week, so it's worth pulling up the chart that mattered most. In the summer of 2020 the stock closed at 13.77 on 23…

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Strategy Capacity: When Trade Size Changes the Result

A backtest can look flawless and still be untradeable. I've watched rules with clean equity curves that assumed every signal filled at the closing print fall apart the moment real…

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Rank Correlation: Measuring Screen Ranking Stability

You run a factor screen at the end of August, and the ten names at the top look familiar. You run it again four weeks later. The same companies are…

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Heteroskedasticity: Why Model Errors Change Size in Markets

A backtest hands you a clean-looking number. The strategy's average edge is 0.4% a week, the confidence interval sits comfortably away from zero, and the significance test says a result…

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Maximum Drawdown: Reading a Peak-to-Trough Decline

Two accounts finish the year at the same value, built from the same set of returns. One you could have held without much stress. The other spent months trading below…

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