Three-Phase Backtesting Protocol That Stops Curve Fitting
You hand a swing system fourteen years of daily bars, sweep eight parameter knobs, and the equity curve climbs at a 38 degree slope with a 1.92 Sharpe and a…
You hand a swing system fourteen years of daily bars, sweep eight parameter knobs, and the equity curve climbs at a 38 degree slope with a 1.92 Sharpe and a…
Most losing trades I review have nothing wrong with the entry pattern. The flag was clean, the volume looked decent, the stop was in a sensible place. The problem sits…
I look back at one of my own ledgers and the pattern is always the same. Eight months of small losses and tiny scratches, the equity curve flat enough to…
The practical case for studying Gil Morales and Chris Kacher is not the headline return figures their accounts reportedly produced during the late 1990s. Those numbers come from one of…
A trader buys near-the-money call options two days before an earnings report. The stock prints, moves 1.4% in the right direction, and the calls still close down 22%. The chart…
The bell rings at 9:30. A stock I have been watching gaps up 3.4% on a clean earnings beat, prints 86.20 in the first minute, fades to 84.10 by 9:45,…
A swing trader risks 2% of a $50,000 account on every trade. The rule has held since the first month of the journal. Then the VIX prints 38 on a…
You watched value lead for a quarter, then quality took over, then low-volatility ran for six weeks while everyone on your timeline argued about which single names to buy. The…
The sortino ratio is a risk-adjusted return measure calculated as a strategy's excess return over a minimum acceptable return, divided by its downside deviation. The formula in one line is…
How to build a repeatable pre-trade checklist that filters setups through trend, volume, volatility, and position sizing gates before committing capital.