NVDA pulls back to $132.06 on 31 October 2024 after rallying from $115.74 at the start of the month. You draw a trendline, but it only captures one edge of the move. You need a channel. The question is how to build one that reflects the trend’s actual geometry, not just an eyeballed parallel line. Andrews Pitchfork gives you that channel using three points and a median line that the market respects more often than you would expect.
Developed by Alan Andrews in the 1960s, the pitchfork is a median line tool. It does not calculate oscillators or filter noise. It maps the structural backbone of a trend. When price hugs the median line, the trend is balanced. When it pushes toward the outer tines, the move is stretched. That distinction alone changes how you think about support and resistance.
How the Pitchfork Is Constructed
Andrews Pitchfork requires exactly three pivot points: P1, P2, and P3. The first pivot is the starting point of the trend. The second and third are the next significant swing high and swing low (or low and high, depending on the direction). The order matters.
For an ascending pitchfork, the sequence is: P1 at a swing low, P2 at the next swing high, P3 at the next swing low. For a descending pitchfork: P1 at a swing high, P2 at the next swing low, P3 at the next swing high.
The median line is drawn from P1 through the midpoint of the segment connecting P2 and P3. The midpoint price is calculated as:
M_{price} = \frac{P2_{price} + P3_{price}}{2}The two outer tines are lines drawn parallel to the median line, passing through P2 and P3 respectively. The upper tine passes through whichever of P2 or P3 is the swing high. The lower tine passes through the swing low. Together, the three lines form the pitchfork shape.
I find the construction straightforward on daily charts, where the swing points are easier to identify. On intraday charts below the 1-hour timeframe, the noise makes pivot selection subjective, and the pitchfork loses much of its usefulness.
The Median Line Principle
Andrews taught that price will return to the median line roughly 80% of the time. That is an empirical observation, not a guaranteed statistic. But in trending markets, it holds up well enough to be useful.
The logic is straightforward. The median line represents the equilibrium path of the trend. Price deviates from equilibrium, tests the outer tines, and then gravitates back toward the center. If you have traded with trendlines or regression channels, this behavior will feel familiar. The pitchfork just gives it a clearer structure.
When price reaches the median line, it does not always bounce cleanly. Sometimes it slices through and continues to the opposite tine. The median line is a magnet, not a wall. Treat it as a zone where the probabilities shift, not a line where you place blind entries.
NVDA Ascending Pitchfork – October to November 2024
NVDA set a swing low of $115.74 on 1 October 2024. The stock rallied over the next three weeks to a swing high of $143.65 on 21 October (high of the day: $143.65, close: $143.65). Then it pulled back to $132.06 on 31 October (low: $132.06, close: $132.71).
The three pivot points:
- P1: 1 October, low $115.74
- P2: 21 October, high $143.65
- P3: 31 October, low $132.06
Midpoint of P2 and P3:
M_{price} = \frac{143.65 + 132.06}{2} = 137.86The median line runs from $115.74 upward through $137.86. The upper tine passes through $143.65, parallel to the median. The lower tine passes through $132.06, also parallel.
What happened next? NVDA bounced off the lower tine area in early November, rallying to $148.87 on 7 November. Price had returned to the median line and then pushed toward the upper tine. The median line principle held: the pullback to the lower tine was a buying opportunity, and the rally found resistance near the upper tine area.
By mid-November, price started failing at the upper tine zone and eventually broke below the lower tine on 25 November, closing at $135.97. That breakdown signaled the trend had changed character. The ascending pitchfork was no longer valid.
AAPL Descending Pitchfork – February to March 2025
AAPL peaked at $248.92 on 25 February 2025 (high of the day). From there, the stock sold off sharply. On 28 February, it dropped to a low of $229.20 before bouncing to a high of $242.97 on 3 March. That gives us a clean descending pitchfork setup.
The three pivot points:
- P1: 25 February, high $248.92
- P2: 28 February, low $229.20
- P3: 3 March, high $242.97
Midpoint of P2 and P3:
M_{price} = \frac{229.20 + 242.97}{2} = 236.09The median line descends from $248.92 through $236.09. The lower tine runs through $229.20, the upper through $242.97. Both are parallel to the median.
Price respected the structure. After the 3 March bounce, AAPL declined back through the median line and reached the lower tine area around 10 March (low: $223.25). It then broke cleanly below the lower tine and accelerated to $207.52 on 13 March. The breakdown below the lower tine was the signal that selling pressure had exceeded the pitchfork’s expected range. That is a useful exit signal or a warning to avoid new longs.
MSFT Step-by-Step Calculation
Here is a full walkthrough using MSFT in early 2025. The stock topped at $442.98 on 22 January (high of the day) and then started a multi-week decline.
Identify the three pivots:
- P1: 22 January, high $442.98
- P2: 3 February, low $404.74
- P3: 20 February, high $416.12
Calculate the midpoint:
M_{price} = \frac{404.74 + 416.12}{2} = 410.43The median line runs from $442.98 downward through $410.43. The lower tine passes through $404.74. The upper tine passes through $416.12.
After the bounce to $416.12, MSFT rolled over. It crossed below the median line around 21 February (close: $405.11) and continued falling toward the lower tine. By 25 February, the stock hit $393.69, which was near the extended lower tine for that date. The final drop to $383.23 on 3 March broke below the lower tine, confirming the trend had exhausted the pitchfork’s range.
I use the midpoint calculation as a sanity check even when the charting platform draws the fork automatically. If the platform’s pitchfork does not match my manual midpoint, I know I selected the wrong pivots.
Selecting the Right Pivot Points
The pitchfork is only as good as your three pivots. Pick the wrong swings and the channel will not contain price at all. Here are the rules I follow.
Use significant swing points, not minor wiggles. If a pivot does not stand out on the chart at first glance, it is probably not significant enough. I look for swings that lasted at least three to five bars and had a meaningful price distance from the prior pivot.
P1 should be a clear reversal or initiation point. It is the anchor of the entire structure. P2 and P3 should be the most obvious high-low (or low-high) pair that follows P1. If you find yourself debating between two candidates for P2 or P3, try both and see which channel contains price more cleanly. The market will tell you which pivots matter.
Timeframe matters. On a daily chart, swing points separated by five to fifteen bars work well. On a weekly chart, pivots separated by three to eight bars tend to produce the best results. Anything tighter than that, and you are fitting noise.
Trading Rules for the Pitchfork
The pitchfork generates two types of signals: mean reversion toward the median line and trend continuation off the tines.
When price touches the upper tine in an ascending pitchfork, it is extended. That does not mean sell immediately. It means the easy part of the rally is over and a pullback toward the median line is probable. The median line becomes the first target. The lower tine is the second.
When price touches the lower tine in an ascending pitchfork, the trend is testing its boundary. If the tine holds, it is a potential entry. If price closes below the lower tine on strong volume, the trend is likely over.
The same logic applies in reverse for descending pitchforks. Rallies to the upper tine are shorting opportunities if the tine holds. Breaks above it suggest the downtrend is exhausting.
I combine the pitchfork with Fibonacci retracements when the pullback to the median line also aligns with a 38.2% or 50% retracement. Those confluences tend to produce the strongest reactions. Adding pivot point levels as a cross-reference can also help confirm whether a tine test coincides with a structural level that other traders are watching.
When the Pitchfork Fails
The pitchfork fails in two predictable ways. First, when the trend is not clean. Choppy, sideways markets produce pivots that do not define a real trend. The pitchfork will contain some candles and miss others. If you have to force the pivots, walk away.
Second, when an external event breaks the trend. The AAPL example above showed price breaking the lower tine on 10 March during a broad market selloff. The pitchfork cannot account for macro shocks. It maps the existing trend’s geometry, nothing more.
I have also learned that redrawing the pitchfork too often is a trap. If the first three pivots do not produce a channel that price respects within the first few bars after P3, the setup is not valid. Move on to another tool or wait for a cleaner structure to form.
Pitchfork Variations
Most charting platforms offer modified pitchforks alongside the standard Andrews version. The two most common are the Schiff Pitchfork and the Modified Schiff Pitchfork.
The Schiff Pitchfork moves P1 to the midpoint between P1 and P2. This produces a shallower median line that fits trends where the initial move from P1 to P2 was unusually steep. The Modified Schiff shifts P1 vertically to the midpoint price between P1 and P2 but keeps the original time coordinate. The result is a median line between the standard and Schiff versions.
I use the standard pitchfork 90% of the time. The Schiff variation only comes out when the standard pitchfork is too steep to contain the subsequent price action. If the standard version works, do not complicate it.
Where the Median Line Earns Its Place on Your Chart
Andrews Pitchfork does one thing well: it maps the structural center of a trend and gives you boundaries to trade against. It does not predict reversals. It does not generate buy and sell signals in the traditional sense. What it does is tell you whether price is stretched, balanced, or losing its trend.
The tool works best on daily and weekly charts with well-defined swing points. It works poorly in choppy markets or on very short timeframes. And it works best when you accept that the three pivots you choose are the entire foundation. Get them right, and the pitchfork will surprise you with how accurately it maps the next several weeks of price action.
Educational content only. Not investment advice. Trading involves risk. You are responsible for your decisions.